What are the year’s best pictures? Our film critic predicts the Oscar nominees

There are still about 16 weeks until the 97th Academy Awards are presented on March 2. Does that make it too soon to be predicting likely candidates for best picture?
Not if you’re an ardent cinephile or industry player. They’ve been handicapping Hollywood’s gold rush since shortly after Labour Day, when the fall festival season began and many hopefuls started screening.
Oscar buzz began even earlier, if you include Cannes award winners “Anora,” “All We Imagine as Light,” “Emilia Pérez” and “The Substance,” which premiered last May.
Here are my current picks, listed alphabetically, for the 10 films most likely to be vying for best picture when nominations are announced Jan. 17. I’ve included 10 alternates I’ve loosely paired with the contenders, on the basis of similar characters, story or style of movie. 
Pick: “Anora”
Opportunity doesn’t just knock, it bangs, in “Red Rocket” filmmaker Sean Baker’s fifth (and best) feature about sex workers. Mikey Madison plays the title character, a Brooklyn stripper looking to up her game and make some money. She meets and impulsively marries the spoiled son of a Russian oligarch, who sends three stooges to bust up the happy couple. But scrappy Ani, as she’s called, has nerve and maybe an unexpected ally. 
Alternate: “Bird”
Social realism meets magic realism in this brilliantly barmy dramedy from Andrea Arnold (“American Honey”). Nykiya Adams astounds as 12-year-old Bailey, who lives in a no-hope English neighbourhood with her dysfunctional family. Bailey can take care of herself but she needs an assist, which is duly supplied by Franz Rogowski’s oddball title character, who seems to just drop from the sky.
Pick: “The Brutalist”
The latest auteur statement from Brady Corbet (“Vox Lux”) is a deep dive into the dark side of the American Dream, as bold as the building style of the title. Adrien Brody stars as a Jewish Hungarian architect seeking to start a new life and satisfy a ruthless tycoon’s design challenges in postwar Philadelphia. Daring in both form and content, the film was shot in high-resolution VistaVision and runs 215 minutes with a built-in intermission.
Alternate: “Nickel Boys”
Racial injustice meets resilience in a 1960s Florida reform school. Shooting almost entirely from a first-person POV, director RaMell Ross puts the viewer in the shoes of friends Elwood (Ethan Herisse) and Turner (Brandon Wilson) in this bravura screen adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer-winning novel.
Pick: “A Complete Unknown”
Timothée Chalamet plays the Bob Dylan of early days, before the “voice of a generation” labelling began. Director James Mangold was most recently in the best picture race with 2019’s “Ford v Ferrari,” but it’s his Johnny Cash biopic from nearly 20 years ago, “Walk the Line,” for which Joaquin Phoenix was nominated for best actor, that suggests the Oscars will take notice. A freewheelin’ Chalamet looks good and sounds even better as Dylan, at least in the trailers. 
Alternate: “A Real Pain”
Jesse Eisenberg has matured considerably as a writer-director since his first feature, 2022’s “When You Finish Saving the World.” His second, “A Real Pain,” is a road movie with Kieran Culkin (“Succession”) and Eisenberg himself that has lingered in critical minds throughout the year. The pair’s journey is sentimental, yes, but this story about two mismatched cousins on a shared family quest through Poland mixes laughs and thoughtfulness in ways that are a joy to watch.
Pick: “Conclave”
Director Edward Berger (“All Quiet on the Western Front”) returns with a papal political thriller that ignites the pages of Robert Harris’s 2016 novel into white-hot smoke. Featuring Ralph Fiennes as a Vatican dean who must discover the truth behind the pope’s sudden death, while locked inside the Sistine Chapel with 100-plus voting (and scheming) fellow cardinals, “Conclave” plays like a religious version of “Columbo.” 
Alternate: “Sing Sing”
Rehabilitation Through the Arts is a real program at New York’s Sing Sing Correctional Facility, and Greg Kwedar’s film, while fictional, features former members in its cast. After Divine G (Colman Domingo) is wrongfully imprisoned, he joins the troupe as they mount a time-travelling musical comedy, and it makes for a movie that reflects artistic achievements as the very virtues of life itself.
Pick: “Dune: Part Two”
In 2021, Canada’s Denis Villeneuve returned from his first trip to Arrakis with six Oscars (for best sound, film editing, cinematography, production design, visual effects and original score). The second “Dune,” even more epic than the first, could easily worm-ride off with as many trophies or more.
Alternate: “Nosferatu”
Robert Eggers (“The Lighthouse”) has a similar fascination with classic stories and meticulous production design. He’s back in the dark and clammy with “Nosferatu,” a remake of F.W. Murnau’s 1922 silent vampire classic. Bill Skarsgård, already fearsome as killer clown Pennywise from the “It” movies, seems an ideal selection for the title role.
Pick: “Emilia Pérez” 
The crime musical by France’s Jacques Audiard shared the best actress prize at Cannes this year between the four women leading its ensemble cast, among them Karla Sofía Gascón, who plays the title character, previously known as cartel kingpin Juan “Manitas” Del Monte. Gascón is the first openly trans actor to win a major award at the festival. The quirky film mashes up a smorgasbord of genres, yet its Cannes accolades and runner-up People’s Choice Award status at TIFF prove it can charm a large audience.
Alternate: “All We Imagine as Light”
Taking home the Grand Prix at Cannes this year, “All We Imagine as Light” is Payal Kapadia’s transcendent look at modern Mumbai through the eyes of three women who are just trying to get by. It’s the kind of visual filmmaking big screens are made for.
Pick: “Gladiator II”
Ridley Scott, long an Oscars contender, is back with a sequel that re-enters the ring nearly 25 years later with (mostly) new blood. Paul Mescal as title hero Lucius Verus certainly looks the part — but will voter swords be drawn at the prospect of giving the “Gladiator” saga a second best picture win? 
Alternate: “Babygirl”
Nicole Kidman, guilty secrets, intense sex. No, not “Eyes Wide Shut” or “The Paperboy.” Halina Reijn (“Bodies Bodies Bodies”) one-ups both of these carnal Kidman frolics with this steamy story of a C-suite executive cheating on her husband (Antonio Banderas) with a much younger intern at her office (Harris Dickinson). Reijn’s script-flipping screenplay features Kidman in some of the strongest and most erotic work she’s ever done. 
Pick: “September 5”
Swiss filmmaker Tim Fehlbaum’s transfixing docu-thriller about ABC Sports’ coverage of the 1972 Olympics massacre of Israeli athletes by Palestinian terrorists is a journalistic rebuttal to a post-truth world. Outstanding performances by Peter Sarsgaard, John Magaro, Leonie Benesch and Ben Chaplin combine with archival footage for genuine you-are-there thrills and insights.
Alternate: “Blitz”
A remarkable performance by child actor Elliott Heffernan grounds filmmaker Steve McQueen’s latest, which follows nine-year-old George as he’s separated from his mother (Saiorse Ronan) during the London Blitz. In true McQueen fashion, traditional narratives are challenged with clear-eyed looks at the broader social context, this time in front of a bitter and brutal campaign of war.
Pick: “Wicked”
Cynthia Erivo as misunderstood Elphaba, Ariana Grande as glitzy Glinda, Jeff Goldblum as the mercurial Wizard of Oz. It’s the film version of Broadway’s trek down the Yellow Brick Road, and director Jon M. Chu (“In the Heights”) is the lucky helmer to have us follow it. Audiences will surely flock (and fly) to go see it. Undoubtedly, “Wicked” will be at the Oscars, too — and not just as a midshow musical number.
Alternate: “The Substance”
Coralie Fargeat’s fun and freaky eye-popper asks: What if a better version of you was just a needle shot away? Ubiquitous billboards and commercials for Ozempic and its rivals feel as if they’re posing the very same question, making this Cannes screenplay winner a wild tale for wild times.
Pick: “The Wild Robot” 
A lost robot, an orphaned gosling and a canny fox join forces in Chris Sanders’ ode to love and teamwork, featuring animation that’s painterly and gorgeous. Oscar-winner Lupita Nyong’o voices the title character, a robot named Roz designed to aid humans, who finds herself stranded on a remote island surrounded by wild animals. It’s simply the best animated film I’ve seen all year.
Alternate: “Inside Out 2”
Pixar’s second dip into the mind and life of Riley, now a teenager, is a refreshing return to form for the studio. It’s the current domestic box office champ of 2024, but is it good enough for a best picture nod?
This article was edited from a previous version that mistakenly said Joaquin Phoenix won best actor for his role in “Walk the Line” at the 2006 Academy Awards. In fact, he was nominated for the best actor Oscar.